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Today's Trackdown for Wednesday - June 16, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Wednesday morning:

* All about the Fed today. *

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading mixed late last night.
    • Dow -25, S&P -1, Nasdaq +5, Russell +2. (11:00 pm ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The Vix has dropped to the mid-teens. This is a sign of risk being put back on.

Today's Economic Calendar:

7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM, Housing Starts for May. The consensus is for 1.630 million SAAR, up from 1.569 million SAAR in April.

2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this meeting.

2:00 PM, FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a guide, do other research as well.)

BRIEFING:

The markets had a pullback day on Tuesday, one day ahead of a Fed announcement. There were no new changes to our chart indicators, but the Stochastics are still showing an overbought condition. However, we still also notice the MACD and the improved Money Flow are positive and doing well.

** FED meeting announcement this afternoon and press conference by Chairman Powell. (What they say about inflation and how the economy is doing could swing the markets).

We are now a good bit above the SPY 420 line, which was a tough resistance area to get over. If we get a pullback, there is a chance that 420 mark would then become support.

On the longer term 8-month chart the trend is still positive. The longer-term uptrend is still intact.


* If you have any questions or opinions to add please do so! *


IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • None.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive.
  • The Money Flow is positive.
  • We are over the 20-day moving average.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • The Stochastics are overbought.
  • Possible market top or trading range in the future?
  • Thinking about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


OPINIONS:

  • Longer-term we are still bullish. The 8-month chart shows a strong uptrend.
  • Short-term it looks like we may try to make new highs.

  • Some risks to the markets still remain.
  • Longer-term question to ask? When will the Fed's easy money and the stimulus sugar run out?

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN, be certain of your trades! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are overbought. The Money Flow is positive.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (416.58)(+0.47) and the 200-day MA (376.62)(+0.40)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 403 support level and over the 420 former resistance level.

The market continues to climb in an impressive up-channel. Longer-term things still look good.


STOCK PICKS: (For trades and/or investments.)

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma, EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance (Under 30 is a good place to buy), KPTI - Karyopharm (Good buy under $10), SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!), TRIL - Trillium Therapeutics.
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Be aware it has a high valuation.)
  • Also watching: IMGN, VKTX.

* TGTX is oversold and a great buy at current levels. *

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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