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Today's Trackdown: Wednesday - June 3, 2020

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Wednesday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading a bit higher late last night. ADP Employment Report this morning.
  • We are above the 200-day moving average - this was a big technical win for the markets. Now we have to stay above it.
  • Dow +105, S&P +10, Nasdaq +19, Russell +12.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus & Protest headlines, how the economy is re-opening, the Fed, the Global Economy and Global Geopolitical conflicts.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - (26.84). It is still elevated, but well off the higher panic like levels. This week so far this has started to drop a bit more significantly.

Today's Economic Calendar:

7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for May. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 9,000,000 payroll jobs lost in May, up from 20,236,000 lost in April.

10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for a reading of 44.0, up from 41.8.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

BRIEFING:

The markets ended higher again on Tuesday. Technically no changes to our charts with the exception that the Money Flow has improved to Positive. We are still above the 200-day moving average and S&P 500's 3,000 mark. With the exception of the Stochastics, which are now high and overbought, the market looks good. The 50-day moving average can now be seen rising noticeably. This is bullish.

* Don't risk to much, there is still a lack of CERTAINTY in the markets. *

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *

CHANGES:

  • The Money Flow has improved to fully positive. (Bullish).

POSITIVES:

  • We are over the 20-day moving average.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • What about the fundamentals? Virus? Protests?
  • The Vix is still high / above 20.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above the 50-day and 200-day MAs. (Bullish).
  • The 20, 50, and 200-day MAs are all heading higher now. (Positive slopes). This is bullish!

  • Technically the market is in great shape and appears solidly bullish. Just keep in mind the fundamentals are questionable currently. We still have virus fears and protests to deal with.

  • Be aware that we are still susceptible to large drops or dips with a level of uncertainty.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result due to higher volatility!
  • Have your trading lists ready.

* Using caution = Do not use MARGIN at this time unless absolutely certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are high/overbought. The Money Flow is positive.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (279.54)(+1.58) and the 200-day MA (297.86)(+0.14)

On the 9-month chart below, we are looking at a severe and quick drop of the market and then a rebound. About 2/3rds of the losses were recovered and then a sideways with a drift up period brings us to where we are today.

We finally got over and above the 200-day moving average and SPY 300. (Bullish).

* Continue to use caution - Still many unknowns. *


STOCKS: (Our most recent FULL TRADING LIST is posted here).

< Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for the quotes, details, news and opinions on our current Favorites and Trade Ideas!

  • Current favorites: AMRN - Amarin, AUPH - Aurinia Pharma, BFYT - Benefytt Tech, COLL - Collegium, EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (new all-time highs), IOVA - Iovance, IMMU - Immunomedics. KPTI - Karyopharm, TGTX - TG Therapeutics.
    If your thinking longer-term/income: T - AT&T is worth a look - high dividend yield.
    Tech Pick: CRWD - CrowdStrike.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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