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Today's Trackdown: Thursday - Nov. 7, 2019

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Wednesday's action:    Nov. 6, 2019

Dow 27492.60 -0.07 (0.00%)
Nasdaq 8410.63 -24.05 (-0.29%)
SP 500 3076.78 +2.16 (0.07%)

The stock market closed near unchanged on Wednesday, marking its second straight pause near record highs as investors digested a possible pushback in the timeline for a trade deal. The S&P 500 added 2 points for the day.


News to keep in mind Thursday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were a bit lower late last night. Dow -38, S&P -2, Nasdaq -1, Russell +2.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; the Global Economy, China trade talks, Fed speak, and the US Treasury markets.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index is under 14, this is risk on.
  • CHINA TRADE WAR is still something to be aware of.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 215,000 initial claims, down from 218,000 last week.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets ended mixed on Wednesday, with no changes to our charts or write up. [Repeated] As far as the technical indicators go; the Stochastics are at short-term overbought while the MACD and the Money Flow are positive. With the Stochastics this high and such a large move upwards recently, we would expect some kind of breather or pullback to be possible. As long as the 300 level holds as support that pullback should be bought.

The current set-up under 'normal conditions' is telling us the next move is up or sideways. We notice the 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages are all in alignment and are all moving higher. Even so, we do remain a bit cautious and would not go all-in or use excessive margin.

The Vix is under 14, which is full risk on for the markets. Keep an eye on all the trade news, political, Fed news, and Trump tweets as those things are capable of raising the Vix and risk quickly.

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are overbought. The Money Flow is positive. We are above the 50-day MA. The 20,50,200 day moving averages are in a positive alignment and heading higher. [/Repeated].

The 50-day MA (297.51)(+.43) and the 200-day MA (287.08)(+.24)

On the 9-month chart below, we were in a large trading range of 285 to 300. We have broken above that area and are now making new all-time highs, 300 has become the next support level.

  • Nasdaq Composite +26.8% YTD
  • S&P 500 +22.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +17.9% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +17.9% YTD

$SPY $DIA $IWM $QQQ

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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