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Today's Trackdown: Friday - August 16, 2019

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Thursday's action:

The stock market ended mixed on Thursday, as traders weighed the resiliency of the U.S. consumer against economic growth concerns. The S&P 500 gained 7 points, led by Walmart. Walmart ($WMT) reported good earnings results and guidance with July retail sales rising above expectations.

News to keep in mind Friday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were slightly higher late last night... Dow +136, S&P +16, Nasdaq +50, Russell +9.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Global Economy, China trade talks, Fed speak, and the US Treasury markets.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index is still over 20 again after spiking up during the sell-off on Wednesday. Not a total panic level, but high and in an area where many traders or their computer algos take some risk-off.
  • CHINA TRADE WAR again!

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 am Housing starts July
8:30 am Building permits July
10 am Consumer sentiment index Aug.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets ended mixed/slightly higher on Thursday. There was very little change to the charts. The tech indicators stayeds the same as the previous day. The MACD is still negative and declining and the Money Flow continues to be positive but is also dropping a bit. The good news is, the 282 level which has been tested and held up 2 previous occasions held up for a 3rd time.

We still reiterate the note above, as the charts mean a bit less when a tweet or news item jolts the market without notice.

*Repeating* - Due to MANY different geopolitical concerns we are staying cautious. (Meaning not starting any new large long positions, taking some profits.) Our strong support line of 280 still has not failed us. On the chart, we twice bounced off of 282 and there is a chance that this level can hold the declines and turn into a support level. The 294 level shows up as a point of resistance as the last two rallies could not clear over that mark and now appears to be solid resistance. So we now appear to be in a 282-294 trading range at the moment, with a midpoint line at 288. My current opinion is we are range bound until some certainty is seen. So we are in a 282-294 range inside of a larger 280-300 range.

* Look for the MACD to bottom, that would mark a good buying point. *

The MACD is negative/declining. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is positive.

The 50-day MA (293.70)(+.06) and the 200-day MA (277.44)(+.11)

On the 9-month chart below, the previous patterns are behind us. Shown now is the support level at 280 and the top just over the 300 level. A 280 to 300 trading range.

  • Nasdaq Composite +17.1% YTD
  • S&P 500 +13.6% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +9.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +8.4% YTD

$SPY $DIA $IWM $QQQ

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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