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Today's Trackdown: Friday - Nov. 22, 2019

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Thursday's action:    Nov. 21, 2019

Dow 27766.20 -54.80 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 8506.21 -20.52 (-0.24%)
SP 500 3103.54 -4.92 (-0.16%)

The S&P 500 dropped nearly 5 points on Thursday making its third straight decline amid some trade-headline worries. As the market still trading up near the all-time highs, the last few days appear to be a time to take some profits.


News to keep in mind Friday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were a bit higher last night.
  • Dow +51, S&P +5, Nasdaq +23, Russell +3.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; the Global Economy, China trade talks, Fed speak, and the US Treasury markets.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index is near 13, this is a risk on level.
  • CHINA TRADE WAR is still something to be aware of.

Today's Economic Calendar:

9:45 am Markit manufacturing PMI (flash) Nov.
9:45 am Markit services PMI (flash) Nov.
10 am Consumer sentiment index Nov.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets ended lower on Thursday. Due to recent weakness, the MACD has started to turn a bit lower. But, besides that, the Money Flow is still very positive and we are well above any of our various support levels. In fact, 310 has acted as a bit of a support  level the last few days. However, still keep in mind and how far we have risen and how fast we have gotten this high, a bit of caution is needed. Although at the same time, there is nothing saying we won't just keep drifting to new highs for the rest of the year and start of the next. As we previously written, you can let winners run, but we would not use excessive margin or open any new large positions.

So the question is, are we getting overextended and having a breather/pullback/pause of some kind? Maybe, but as long as support levels hold on any such moves, the dips can be bought. On the long term chart, we mark the last break out point of 302.50 as a support level. On the shorter term chart, we mark 304 as the first possible support area followed by 300 and 294.

The current set-up under 'normal conditions' is telling us we should continue to move sideways or up. We notice the 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages are all in alignment and are all moving higher. The current price is also above all three MAs, which is good usually.

The Vix is near 13, which is risk on for the markets.

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are high. The Money Flow is very positive. We are above the 50-day MA. The 20,50,200 day moving averages are in a positive alignment and heading higher.

The 50-day MA (300.96)(+.21) and the 200-day MA (289.57)(+.22)

On the 9-month chart below, we have broken above the previous tops line near 302.50, that area is now a support level. We are now in an uptrend channel, but be aware near the top of the channel.

  • Nasdaq Composite +28.2% YTD
  • S&P 500 +23.8% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +19.0% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +17.5% YTD

$SPY $DIA $IWM $QQQ

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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