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Today's Trackdown: Friday - May 25, 2018

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Chart and some Technical Analysis

Stocks were down Thursday in a more volatile session. Headline risks dealing with China trade and North Korea gave the markets some concerns.

News to keep in mind Friday morning:

  • Markets are slightly lower on all the averages in early pre-market trading.
  • At 8:50am ET - Dow futures vs fair value: -43.00. S&P futures vs fair value: -6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00.
  • 10-yr Treasury yields are back under 3.00% - Keep an eye on how this affects the market.
  • The VIX is up over 5% in pre-market trades

Today's Economic Calendar

8:30 Durable Goods
9:20 Fed's Powell: “Financial Stability and Central Bank Transparency”
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
11:45 Fed's Evans Speech
11:45 Fed's Bostic Speech
11:45 Fed's Kaplan Speech
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
SIFMA close 2:00 PM

On the SPY chart below it is important to note the SPY is still above its 50-day MA. The MACD lines are positive. The Stochastics are neutral. The Chaikin is showing a small amount of money flowing into the markets.

I am still using a trading range with support at 270 and resistance at 274. I have used the tops of the latest candles at 274, to mark the top of the short-term trading range. On Tuesday, the markets hit that 274 resistance level and reversed confirming it. The MACD is positive but could be rolling over leading to a possible downward cross. The Stochastics are neutral. Money flow is currently a slight positive for the markets. We are back to using caution buying dips and also selling the rips.

* - Tuesdays decline created a bearish engulfing candle. In pre-market trading the markets are lower with the VIX rising over 5% so far. Keep a close eye on the 270 level it needs to hold or we risk lower levels.

* - We are back on "death cross" watch. The 200-day MA is still climbing while the 50-day MA is sideways. The lines are getting closer and it is a good possibility that we do see the 50-day MA cross below the 200-day. 

In the longer term chart, we are still looking at a large declining triangle. Recently got above the declining tops line. I marked 270-275 as the latest range or congestion area to watch.

  • Nasdaq Composite +7.6% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +6.0% YTD
  • S&P 500 +2.0% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.4% YTD

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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