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Today's Trackdown for Tuesday - June 22, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Tuesday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading a bit higher late last night.
    • Dow +70, S&P +7, Nasdaq +15, Russell +5. (1:05 am ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).

Today's Economic Calendar:

10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for May from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.72 million SAAR, down from 5.85 million. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 5.78 million SAAR for May.

10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.

2:00 PM, Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, The Federal Reserve's Response to the Coronavirus Pandemic, Before the Select Subcommittee on Coronavirus Crisis, U.S. House of Representatives


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a guide, do other research as well.)

BRIEFING:

The markets had a reversal of Friday's drop and had a Monday pop. We had very little change to our chart indicators. We did have the S&P retake and get back over the important 50-day moving average. Bouncing back above the 50-day is very important technically.

With the Monday bounce we are also back above the SPY 420 level. This gives us a chance that this level will now become or act as support. 

On the longer term 8-month chart the trend is still positive. The longer-term uptrend is still intact.


* If you have any questions or opinions to add please do so! *


IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • We popped back above the 50-day moving average.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive.
  • We are above the 20-day moving average.
  • We are above the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are above the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • Possible market top or trading range in the future?
  • Thinking about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


OPINIONS:

  • Longer-term we are still bullish. The 8-month chart shows a strong uptrend.
  • Short-term it looks like we may be in a bit of trouble.

  • Some risks to the markets still remain.
  • Longer-term question to ask? When will the Fed's easy money and the stimulus sugar run out?
  • Will higher inflation cause the Fed to raise rates?

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN, be certain of your trades! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive, declining. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is neutral.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (416.21)(+0.21) and the 200-day MA (376.83)(+0.34)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 403 support level and over the 420 former resistance level.

The market continues to climb in an impressive up-channel. Longer-term things still look good.


STOCK PICKS: (For trades and/or investments.)

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma, EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance (Under 30 is a good place to buy), KPTI - Karyopharm (Good buy under $10), SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!), TRIL - Trillium Therapeutics.
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Be aware it has a high valuation.)
  • Also watching: IMGN, VKTX.

* TGTX is oversold and a great buy at current levels. *

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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