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Today's Trackdown: Friday - Nov. 15, 2019

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Thursday's action:    Nov. 14, 2019

Dow 27781.87 -1.63 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 8479.02 -3.08 (-0.04%)
SP 500 3096.63 +2.59 (0.08%)

The S&P 500 ended up 2 points, which is just enough to set another record close on Thursday.


News to keep in mind Friday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were higher late last night.
  • Dow +97, S&P +11, Nasdaq +33, Russell +8.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; the Global Economy, China trade talks, Fed speak, and the US Treasury markets.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index is near 13, this is a risk on level.
  • CHINA TRADE WAR is still something to be aware of.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for October will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales.

8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 5.0, up from 4.0.

9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October. The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 77.2%.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets ended very much unchanged on Thursday, the SPY gained just enough to make a new all-time high. There were no change to the charts, with the exception of the Money Flow which became a stronger positive.

Some resistance can still be seen at the 310 level. We still have some caution about how far the rally has come and how fast it has run us higher. We still may have a breather/pullback/pause sometime. On the long term chart, we mark the last break out point of 302.50 as a support level. On the shorter term chart, we mark 304 as a possible support area.

Our current set-up under 'normal conditions' is telling us the next move is sideways or up. We notice the 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages are all in alignment and are all moving higher. The MACD is positive and rising, but could be said up at an overbought kind of reading. Even though the markets may continue to drift higher, we will remain a bit cautious and would not go all-in or use excessive margin.

The Vix is near 13, which is risk on for the markets.

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are high. The Money Flow is positive. We are above the 50-day MA. The 20,50,200 day moving averages are in a positive alignment and heading higher.

The 50-day MA (299.60)(+.26) and the 200-day MA (288.49)(+.22)

On the 9-month chart below, we have broken above the previous tops near 302.50, that area may now be a support level.

  • Nasdaq Composite +27.8% YTD
  • S&P 500 +23.5% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +19.1% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +17.8% YTD

$SPY $DIA $IWM $QQQ

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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