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Today's Trackdown: Wednesday - August 14, 2019

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Tuesday's action:

Stocks rallied on Tuesday after the White House announced the delay of the 10% tariff rate for some items imported from China, including cell phones and laptops, until Dec. 15. Apple ($AAPL 208.97, +8.49, +4.2%) led the advance. The S&P 500 ended up 42 points.

News to keep in mind Wednesday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were slightly higher late last night... Dow +32, S&P +2, Nasdaq +4, Russell +1.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Global Economy, China trade talks, Fed speak, and the US Treasury markets.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index is now under 20 again. It is still fairly high, so keep a close eye on it and other geopolitical news.
  • CHINA TRADE WAR again!!!

Today's Economic Calendar:

Aug 14 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications Index 08/10
Aug 14 08:30 Import Prices Jul
Aug 14 08:30 Export Prices Jul
Aug 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jul
Aug 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jul
Aug 14 10:30 EIA Crude Oil Inventories 08/10


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets ended much higher on Tuesday. The tech indicators improved a little bit as the MACD went from negative to a bit flat/neutral.  The Money Flow continues to be very positive as Tuesday's rally had more volume than the sell-off Monday.

We still reiterate the note above, as the charts mean a bit less when a tweet or news item jolts the market without notice.

Due to many different geopolitical concerns we are staying cautious. (Meaning not starting any new large long positions, taking some profits.) Our strong support line of 280 has not failed us. On the chart, we twice bounced off of 282 and now also 288 has held, these levels can now be considered support. The 294 level shows up as a point of resistance as the last two rallies could not clear over that mark. So we appear to be in a 288-294 trading range at the moment till we break in one direction. My current opinion is we are range bound until some certainty is seen. So we are in a 288-294 range inside of a larger 280-300 range.

* Look for the MACD to bottom, that could mark a good buying point. *

The MACD is negative/flat. The Stochastics are neutral/high. The Money Flow is very positive.

The 50-day MA (293.54)(+.39) and the 200-day MA (277.24)(+.16)

On the 9-month chart below, the previous patterns are behind us. Shown now is the support level at 280 and the top just over the 300 level. A 280 to 300 trading range.

  • Nasdaq Composite +20.8% YTD
  • S&P 500 +16.7% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +12.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +12.0% YTD

$SPY $DIA $IWM $QQQ

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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